Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 3, March 2025

By Anders Corr

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2025 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland. Source: Gage Skidmore via Flickr.

The Chinese Communist Party is reacting to the Trump administration’s revolution in U.S. foreign policy with a full-court press in the media. President Donald Trump’s overtures to Russia’s Vladimir Putin are put front-and-center by Beijing so China can appeal to Europe, which sees Mr. Putin as anathema due to his invasion of Ukraine. And, the CCP is using Mr. Trump’s tariffs, against not only foes like China, but friends like Canada and the European Union, to criticize the United States as returning to the “law of the jungle.” In such a world, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said on March 7, small countries are disadvantaged relative to large countries. However, Mr. Trump’s tariffs against China, if adopted by all U.S. allies, would so threaten China’s economy as to potentially increase public disapproval with the CCP and encourage China’s democratization. This would remove the CCP’s support for Russia, killing the two biggest authoritarian birds with one stone. It is the one policy around which the United States, Europe, and Japan can best unite to bring down America’s traditional adversaries.

Beijing is trying to claim that the Trump administration is somehow hypocritical in trying to appeal to Beijing while simultaneously courting “war” with China through tariffs and sanctions. Given Beijing’s long use of abrupt trade sanctions against U.S. allies like Australia, the Philippines, and Japan, to strong-arm them on geopolitical issues, the real hypocrisy is on the part of the CCP rather than in Washington.

Mr. Yi’s message to Trump in calling the United States “two-faced” is that America cannot have both good relations with Beijing, and tough trade action against China. On March 5, China’s foreign ministry spokesman said, “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.” This is an obvious and failed attempt to scare the American public.

The CCP’s foreign ministry, with Mr. Wang at its head, is desperately trying to stop a U.S. trade war with China that has already started to pinch China’s imports and exports, and expand to U.S. allies in Europe. It is adding to the problems of China’s beleaguered export-dependent economy, burst property bubble, demographic crisis, youth unemployment, outmigration, and capital flight. 

Mr. Trump is now well-placed, after imposing up to 60% China tariffs that increase pressure on China’s economy, to gain further cooperation from the European Union, one of the world’s top-three economies along with the United States and China. Increased E.U. tariffs on China could double the weight of U.S. tariffs and force the CCP into real and irreversible reform.

Canada and Mexico are showing the way. Mexico in particular has proposed to match U.S. tariffs on China, according to U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. This coordinated approach would help the Trump administration’s goal of blocking the Mexican backdoor for U.S. imports from China. In January, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum usefully proposed an import substitution plan to replace Chinese with Mexican goods. On March 6, after the Trump administration suspended tariffs on Mexico, she blamed Chinese imports for hurting Mexico’s textile and shoe industries and driving criminal violence in the state of Guanajuato. Ms. Sheinbaum is currently reviewing Mexican tariffs on China and said she would prioritize Mexico’s trade with the United States over its trade with China. Mexican tariffs on China would be a major shift for her political party, and a big win for the America First foreign and economic policy. Under former Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) during the Biden administration, Mexico was highly supportive of China.

If other U.S. allies and trade partners similarly adopt matching tariffs on China, global supply chains would shift away from China and towards U.S. partners through a process of global friendshoring. This would threaten China’s export-oriented economy, increase dissent among Chinese citizens against the CCP, and potentially go so far as to democratize the country. To this end, the United States should ask Japan and South Korea to likewise impose 60% tariffs on China. Vietnam, one of the top transshipment countries for Chinese goods, should also be asked to impose matching tariffs on China. If not, the communist country could be advised that U.S. tariffs will increase on Vietnam itself.

The CCP has reacted so strongly against the America First trade policy because it knows that if more countries adopt tariffs against China, it would be harder for the regime to continue to survive, much less build the military necessary to conquer Taiwan. Mr. Trump’s policy thus holds powerful cards against Beijing if U.S. allies unite behind America against the CCP’s clear and present danger. Our joint goal should be not only the decoupling of China from the United States, but the decoupling of China from the world. When China democratizes, the country could be welcomed back into the fold of America’s responsible international partners.

Anders Corr has a BA in political science from Yale University, a PhD in Government from Harvard University, and extensive international experience in the field of intelligence. His most recent book is the Concentration of Power: Institutionalization, Hierarchy & Hegemony (Optimum Publishing International, 2021).