Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 12, December 2024 

By Christopher Shove, Ph.D.

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan “No More Time”. Anthony D Barraclough via Flickr.

As Russian losses mount, Putin’s threat of a nuclear incident becomes all the more likely. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report dated 10 December 2024, Russian casualties from February 24, 2022 to December 10, 2024 include the following: 755,940 personnel, 9,524 tanks, and 19,596 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). While Ukraine’s estimate may appear high, there is consensus from many intelligence sources that Russian losses are substantial. A recent example is the increase in losses in the Russia Kursk oblast where Ukraine counter-attacked and has occupied since August 6, 2024. Here, Ukrainian soldiers report 10 or more daily waves of Russian attacks on the Kursk battlefield with almost all stopped, resulting in massive Russian losses. As a result, Russia has transferred soldiers from other areas to the Kursk battlefield – with only losses and no gains against Ukraine’s clever tactics.

Furthermore, using listening devices on North Korean forces’ cell phones in December 2024, Ukraine learned that their forces were organizing a counter-attack on Ukraine-occupied Kursk. They were also able to learn the location of the North Korean forces, and, as a result, disrupted and destroyed much of the North Korean forces before they went to the battlefield front-line. Ukrainian bloggers also report that on December 9, 2024 Ukrainian Special Forces, speaking in flawless Russian, transmitted to Russian commanders that Ukrainian forces had left the area of Pogrebki. This Ukrainian ruse resulted in an ambush of Russian reinforcements, destroying many IFVs and fleeing Russian soldiers.

However, Russian losses are not the only issue affecting Putin’s decision to use a nuclear incident. An influential and historical issue is the World War II Battle of Kursk between 5 July 1943 and  23 August 1943, which resulted in a great victory for the Soviet Union over the attacking Nazis. The 1943 Battle of Kursk was the biggest tank battle in history and a World War II turning point for the Soviet Union. The battle therefore plays an important role in Russia’s history and culture. Recent Russian losses in Kursk threaten Putin’s legacy and his place in the country’s history. Under his leadership, Russia is losing the land of its greatest victory.

Recent Russian losses and Kursk history therefore appear to be influencing Putin’s use of a threatened nuclear incident, which he has alluded  to many times. While USSR Cold War doctrine was to use nuclear weapons on Poland to stop a NATO counter-attack, this is unlikely. Putin will not provoke a full response from NATO. Rather, as a former intelligence officer, Putin continues to use hybrid conflict strategies and tactics in Ukraine and elsewhere. It is also unlikely that Putin would use a nuke on Russian soil. Thus Putin’s nuclear response is more likely to be a hybrid Chernobyl incident to maintain plausible deniability in Ukraine. An example is the 11 August 2024 who-did-it “accidental” fire at the Ukraine Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station.

A worrisome question is how will the Allied nations respond? In the past two years, the Allied nations’ tepid and anti-escalation response to Russia’s invasion of nations is a proven, non-viable strategy. In fact, the non-escalation strategy appears to have increased Russian hostility, including the threats of a nuclear incident. Unfortunately, according to a broad, 18-month study by the National Academy of Sciences, there is a great need to improve global strategies to prevent nuclear incidents such as at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station.

Given how the history of the 1943 Battle of Kursk – compounded by Putin’s father being a member of the World War II “Destruction Battalions” – as well as how the current Russian losses and Russian forces’ failures in Kursk stand to influence Putin, it is increasingly likely that the president will cause a hybrid conflict nuclear incident. Appeasing Hitler caused war with many nations, including the U.S. and, as President Truman and his advisors learned, the only way to stop an unyielding tyrant is their destruction and unconditional surrender. Hopefully, the Allied nations will respond in the same way to Putin causing a nuclear incident.

Dr. Christopher Shove was a tenured associate professor at an American university who, during sabbatical and summers, lived and worked in Russia and Eastern Europe over ten years advising on economic development. He published academic journal articles on Russia.