An excellent Economist article dated March 9 discusses Bangladesh unrest due to criminalization of Jamaat-e-Islami. They take a similar stance to Corr Analytics’ posts of February 18 and March 6.
Unfounded Worries of a Sino-Japanese War
Saber-rattling by China over the Senkaku Islands, most recently in the form of locking weapons on a Japanese ship and helicopter, have led some analysts to warn of war between the two East Asian countries. These analysts go further to question whether the US treaty commitment to Japan’s territorial integrity would hold in this case (Wall Street Journal).
Such warnings are overblown. Militarized jostling of this sort is normal for low-intensity territorial disputes. All parties — including China — recognize that war would be counterproductive. China regularly activates media coverage with its mildly belligerent actions in order to bolster and maintain its long-term claim to the islands should the case go to an international court in future. Japan is a key US ally and trading partner. There is no question that were war to occur between China and Japan, the United States would defend its ally.
North Korean Nuclear Threats
North Korea issued a nuclear threat against the United States and South Korea today, the latest in a long series of such threats emanating from the small rogue nation in East Asia (Wall Street Journal). The UN was already in the process of tightening sanctions, but nothing that will drastically alter the status quo. These threats are geared to galvanize public support within North Korea for the leadership, as well as potentially garner minor material concessions from the West. The most likely scenario is no change, but given the country’s new youthful leadership (Kim Jong Eun), costly missteps are possible. That Kim Jong Eun lacks missile capabilities to deliver nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to his targets does not mean that he could not deliver WMD via simpler methods such as cargo container or by smuggling the material on fast boats from neighboring countries. Port and major cities in the US, South Korea, and Japan have a miniscule but persistent and catastrophic risk from North Korean WMD delivery.
Increased Unrest in Bangladesh
Journal of Political Risk
By Anders Corr, Ph.D.
A few weeks ago Corr Analytics predicted a likely increase in Bangladesh unrest due to steps leading to the criminalization of the Islamist political party, Jamaat-e-Islami (canalyt.com).
With today’s arrest of a Jamaat-e-Islami party official, the predicted unrest materialized. A demonstration that clashed with police resulted in at least 61 injured. Demonstrators threw crude bombs at police, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — the main opposition in parliament — is now more closely allied with Jamaat-e-Islami. The BNP called for a General Strike on Thursday (Associated Press).
Given the extensive business interests and relatively strong alliance of Bangladesh with the West, it is paramount to maintain the country’s relative stability. Given the pro-Islamist outcomes of the Arab Spring events, it would not be advised to risk another such movement in Bangladesh. The US and other Western ambassadors to Bangladesh should encourage moderation of the Bangladesh Government with respect to Islamist political parties. Not doing so risks further increases in unrest, a less stable investment environment, and potential increases in Bangladesh-originated terrorism.
JPR Status: Commentary
Death of Hugo Chavez
With the death of President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela today, expect increased political stability in Latin America. President Chavez was an activist in international politics, encouraging ideological conflict of the anti-Western and anti-market variety. He used his country’s oil wealth to magnify his voice and achieve these ends. Investments in Venezuela and Latin America will be safer without Chavez.
Concerns that his likely successor, Mr. Maduro, will be more radical (Wall Street Journal) are almost certainly overblown. Mr. Maduro’s comments on foreign influence in the country, and his expulsion of two US diplomats, are likely meant to solidify political support among Chavez supporters. This is a short-term political strategy on the part of Mr. Maduro, without long-term effect on the Venezuelan investment environment.