Countering ISIS Recruitment in Western Nations

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 1, January 2015. Table 1 is labelled "ISIS's goals and objectives" and includes the following categories: ISIS Primary Goal, and ISIS secondary goal

Katherine Leggiero

Executive Summary

Personal grievances associated with political, economic, social and religious aspects of Western society in conjunction with naiveté of war, Islam and terrorism may expedite the radicalization process and motivate both Western women and men to participate in ISIS’s cause. ISIS incentivizes the bay’ah and hijra obligation by offering a recruit new identity and a part in the founding of the Caliphate. Participating in ISIS’s jihad and founding of the Caliphate may also provide individuals experiencing relative deprivation with employment, basic needs, or politics and religious practices that aligns with their expectations of how society should operate. Westerners with Somali and Palestinian heritage are frequently socially marginalized and believe the Caliphate can provide them with a new life and group identity governed by religious law. While recent Western converts to Islam find a sense of purpose as ISIS members in being a part of the founding of the Caliphate and will use media (e.g. suicide missions, burning passport, propaganda video, social media recruiter) to prove their allegiance.

In turn, ISIS encourages its Western members to use their smartphones to instruct, guide and recruit other Westerners on their social media accounts (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, Kik, Ask.fm, Skype, and blogs). ISIS facilitators recruit at community events (religious seminars and community activities) and schools (e.g. high schools and colleges), but require an ISIS sheikh recommendation and “jihad mentor” for Western recruits to be selected and to prevent US intelligence collection. ISIS keeps its messaging simple (“join the Caliphate”) within its branding and recruitment campaign on its Google Play App, The Dawn of Glad Tidings and its monthly electronic magazine, Dabiq. ISIS’s narrative uses group identity to prevent an individual from employing any other values that could disrupt ISIS’s group coherence and unified action. ISIS makes the sacred value (e.g. governance by Allah) incompatible with other values, which in turn prevents trade-offs and concessions from occurring within their in-group. When the value becomes non-negotiable, the individual relies on emotional processing opposed to complex reasoning processes. ISIS’s narrative uses group identity to prevent individuals from employing any other values that could disrupt ISIS’s group coherence and unified actions.

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Dear Raúl, querido Obama, dear Pope Francis

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 12, December 2014.

Tatlin's Whisper #6 is a performance art piece by Tania Bruguera first performed in 2009 in Havana. Ms. Bruguera invited audience members to speak their minds without censorship from a podium flanked by two persons in military uniform. In a reference to Fidel Castro's speech of 1959, in which a white dove alighted on his shoulder, a dove was placed on the shoulders of speakers when they spoke.

Tatlin’s Whisper #6 is a performance art piece by Tania Bruguera first performed in 2009 in Havana. Ms. Bruguera invited audience members to speak their minds without censorship from a podium flanked by two persons in military uniform. In reference to Fidel Castro’s speech of January 8, 1959, in which a white dove alighted on his shoulder, a dove was placed on the shoulders of speakers. Ms. Bruguera’s call for December 30 demonstrations by Cubans is detailed on the #yotambienexigo Facebook and Twitter sites.

Dear Raúl, querido Obama, dear Pope Francis,

First let me offer congratulations, because politicians are expected to make history and today, December 17th, 2014, has been a historic day.

You have made history by proposing that the embargo/blockade become empty words. With the restoration of diplomatic relations, you have transformed the meaning of fifty-three years of policies defined by one side (the United States) and used by the other (Cuba) to ideologically guide the daily lives of Cubans everywhere. I wonder if this gesture is not also a proposal to kill ideology itself? Cuba is finally seeing itself, not from the perspective of death, but of life. But, I wonder, what will that life be and who will have the right to that new life?

Very well then, Raúl,

As a Cuban, today I call for the right to know what is being planned with our lives and, as part of this new phase, for the establishment of a politically transparent process in which we will all be able to participate, and to have the right to hold different opinions without punishment. When it comes time to reconsider what has defined who we are, that it not include the same intolerance and indifference which has so far accompanied changes in Cuba—a process in which acquiescence is the only option.

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Opportunities in a New Era of US-Cuban Relations

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 12, December 2014. 

The Cuban and U.S. flags are photographed side-by-side in Miami.

The Cuban and U.S. flags side-by-side in Miami, Florida. A U.S. delegation is staying in Havana, Cuba. Cuba’s foreign minister told the group of U.S. senators and congressmen Monday that his country is open to greater diplomatic and trade ties but the congressional delegation did not meet President Raul Castro, the man who will make many of the key decisions about the new U.S.-Cuban relationship. Source: Phillip Pesar via Flickr.

Matthew Michaelides
Editor of the Journal of Political Risk

Yesterday, American officials announced that the United States and Cuba would re-establish full diplomatic relations, ties that the U.S.  had broken off in January 1961. The United States will once again have an embassy in Havana, and Cuba an embassy in Washington. Travel and financial restrictions between the countries will be eased by executive order as everyone waits to see if Congress will accept President Obama’s recommendation and end the U.S. embargo of the island nation.

The Obama administration’s actions seemed inevitable and necessary.

Increasing global recognition of Cuba’s economic liberalization over recent years have made a continued policy of estrangement untenable.

In recent months, the European Union and Cuba have held high-level trade talks that will almost certainly produce a deal.  And some Latin American leaders –  and not just leftists – had expressed increasing frustration with U.S. policy toward Cuba and even threatened to boycott the Summit of the Americas without Cuba’s attendance. Further, within the U.S. support for the embargo is at an all-time low.[1]

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History and Putin’s Russia: An Ideational Struggle for Preeminence?

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 11, November 2014.

The Kremlin star photographed from below.

The Kremlin star, 2008. Source: Andrew Kuznetsov via Flickr.

Rhoads Cannon
Founder

The impact of history leaves an indelible handprint upon the construction of ideational beliefs. With the fall of the Soviet Empire in East and Central Europe, there was a mixed sense of jubilation among disparate peoples of the post-Soviet space. Former US National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, rightly stipulates that the disintegration of the Soviet Union “created a black hole in the center of Eurasia,”[1] and today’s post-911 world continues to endure the multifarious impact of this transitional paradigm. Undoubtedly, the dismemberment of 27,000 nuclear arms, three freshwater fleets, and four million men in arms was and chiefly remains a psychosomatic and socio-economic challenge of the highest degree.[2] Although Kremlin observers debate the extent to which Russian decision-making is conceptualized solely by the Kremlin, it is blatantly clear that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and his inner-coterie have not come to grips with the loss of largess via the Soviet legacy.

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Nuclear Deal: Iran Wants At least 7,000 Centrifuges, Rejects Verification, and Likely Already Tested a Nuclear Weapon Device at Parchin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 10, October 2014.

Vice President of the European Commission Catherine Margaret Ashton talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry at the Coburg Palais in Vienna.

Vice President of the European Commission Catherine Margaret Ashton talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry at the Coburg Palais in Vienna, on July 13, 2014, for talks with foreign ministers from the six powers negotiating with Tehran on its nuclear programWestern foreign ministers from the P5+1 group of nations are expected in Austria to try and resolve differences with Iran over its nuclear program, a week before the deadline to strike a deal. Source: European Parliament via Flickr.

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

Iran wants at least 7,000 centrifuges for its uranium enrichment capacity, it made clear in negotiations with the United States and other members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (the P5+1). Iran is currently spinning only 10,000 of its 20,000 centrifuges, and thus a drop to 7,000 centrifuges would not significantly slow its current rapid progress towards nuclear weapons capabilities. The current negotiations are hinging on a dispute between Iran, which wants at least 7,000 centrifuges, and the P5+1, which wants a limit of of 4,000 Iranian centrifuges.  Also impeding an agreement is that Iran is suspected to have already tested a nuclear weapon device, and has not agreed to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) request for full monitoring and verification, including at its nuclear military site in Parchin.

The Journal of Political Risk received this information during an exclusive interview with a reliable official source on Wednesday October 23. JPR could not verify the official’s information, since the official requested anonymity. The official followed up with a detailed explanation, quoted below. Continue reading