Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No.3, March 2015.
Zinsmeister argues against using state policy toward cigarettes to discern marijuana policy in Mexico.
Jeffrey E. Zinsmeister
Consultant
Abstract
Marijuana legalization advocates in Mexico often point to the cigarette market as a regulatory model for marijuana—a way to control consumption, assure product quality, and reduce the power of narcotraffickers. While the comparison between the two markets is apt—both are capital-intensive industries that favor economies of scale—it is not a favorable one in the Mexican context. Due to these market dynamics and pervasive corruption, the Mexican cigarette business is divided into a legal business dominated by two multinational tobacco companies, and a large black market dominated by drug traffickers. Accusations of corrupt practices are rife with respect to both markets, practices that undermine anti-smoking regulations, increase smoking rates (especially among minors), and enrich organized criminal syndicates. Perhaps as a consequence, Mexico’s anti-smoking program yields far less in government revenues than it must pay out in increased public health costs. As legalized marijuana would likely follow this same negative pattern, legalization policies will likely degrade public safety and health in Mexico.
