Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 1, January 2015.

Shaky truce in Kiev. Police and demonstrators prepare for another day Anti-government protest in Kiev, Ukraine – 20 Feb 2014 At least 26 people have been killed and hundreds injured as violence once again flared between police and anti-government protesters, after several weeks of calm. The anti-government protesters are calling for the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych over corruption and an abandoned trade agreement with the European Union. Source: Sasha Maksymenko via Flickr.

Irene Kovalchuk
Senior Associate

Matthew Michaelides
Editor of the Journal of Political Risk

During the last year Ukraine has accelerated its transition toward democracy, started reforming its institutions, and introduced a package of anti-corruption laws. Nevertheless, the expelled ex-president, Viktor Yanukovich, accused of stealing billions from Ukraine and overseeing mass killings of civilians, has not been brought to justice. Only a small fraction of the equivalent of billions of dollars stolen by the “Yanukovich family” has been frozen.[1] At the same time, with mounting debts, the government needs the lost money more than ever. And Ukrainians will not have full faith in their new government without seeing those guilty of crimes punished.

Domestic and international actors must work diligently both to recover the government’s stolen assets and ensure that the level of government corruption witnessed under Yanukovich’s rule are never repeated. This would require effective cooperation among the Ukrainian government, the nation’s civil society and Western nations. But the consequences of insufficient action would be too costly for a country already under severe stress.

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 12, December 2014.

Tatlin’s Whisper #6 is a performance art piece by Tania Bruguera first performed in 2009 in Havana. Ms. Bruguera invited audience members to speak their minds without censorship from a podium flanked by two persons in military uniform. In reference to Fidel Castro’s speech of January 8, 1959, in which a white dove alighted on his shoulder, a dove was placed on the shoulders of speakers. Ms. Bruguera’s call for December 30 demonstrations by Cubans is detailed on the #yotambienexigo Facebook and Twitter sites.

Dear Raúl, querido Obama, dear Pope Francis,

First let me offer congratulations, because politicians are expected to make history and today, December 17th, 2014, has been a historic day.

You have made history by proposing that the embargo/blockade become empty words. With the restoration of diplomatic relations, you have transformed the meaning of fifty-three years of policies defined by one side (the United States) and used by the other (Cuba) to ideologically guide the daily lives of Cubans everywhere. I wonder if this gesture is not also a proposal to kill ideology itself? Cuba is finally seeing itself, not from the perspective of death, but of life. But, I wonder, what will that life be and who will have the right to that new life?

Very well then, Raúl,

As a Cuban, today I call for the right to know what is being planned with our lives and, as part of this new phase, for the establishment of a politically transparent process in which we will all be able to participate, and to have the right to hold different opinions without punishment. When it comes time to reconsider what has defined who we are, that it not include the same intolerance and indifference which has so far accompanied changes in Cuba—a process in which acquiescence is the only option.

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 12, December 2014. 

The Cuban and U.S. flags side-by-side in Miami, Florida. A U.S. delegation is staying in Havana, Cuba. Cuba’s foreign minister told the group of U.S. senators and congressmen Monday that his country is open to greater diplomatic and trade ties but the congressional delegation did not meet President Raul Castro, the man who will make many of the key decisions about the new U.S.-Cuban relationship. Source: Phillip Pesar via Flickr.

Matthew Michaelides
Editor of the Journal of Political Risk

Yesterday, American officials announced that the United States and Cuba would re-establish full diplomatic relations, ties that the U.S.  had broken off in January 1961. The United States will once again have an embassy in Havana, and Cuba an embassy in Washington. Travel and financial restrictions between the countries will be eased by executive order as everyone waits to see if Congress will accept President Obama’s recommendation and end the U.S. embargo of the island nation.

The Obama administration’s actions seemed inevitable and necessary.

Increasing global recognition of Cuba’s economic liberalization over recent years have made a continued policy of estrangement untenable.

In recent months, the European Union and Cuba have held high-level trade talks that will almost certainly produce a deal.  And some Latin American leaders –  and not just leftists – had expressed increasing frustration with U.S. policy toward Cuba and even threatened to boycott the Summit of the Americas without Cuba’s attendance. Further, within the U.S. support for the embargo is at an all-time low.[1]

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 11, November 2014.

The Kremlin star, 2008. Source: Andrew Kuznetsov via Flickr.

Rhoads Cannon
Founder

The impact of history leaves an indelible handprint upon the construction of ideational beliefs. With the fall of the Soviet Empire in East and Central Europe, there was a mixed sense of jubilation among disparate peoples of the post-Soviet space. Former US National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, rightly stipulates that the disintegration of the Soviet Union “created a black hole in the center of Eurasia,”[1] and today’s post-911 world continues to endure the multifarious impact of this transitional paradigm. Undoubtedly, the dismemberment of 27,000 nuclear arms, three freshwater fleets, and four million men in arms was and chiefly remains a psychosomatic and socio-economic challenge of the highest degree.[2] Although Kremlin observers debate the extent to which Russian decision-making is conceptualized solely by the Kremlin, it is blatantly clear that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and his inner-coterie have not come to grips with the loss of largess via the Soviet legacy.

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