Cuba’s Roller-Coaster Investment Climate — Not for the Faint-Hearted

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2015.

A white building with a red roof is photographed in a large, green field. Palm trees are visible in the background.

The Club House at Instituto Superior de Arte. The campus is built on the site of an old golf course that was “reclaimed” after the revolution, 2007. The Cuban government has taken increasingly large steps in recent years toward economic liberalization. Cuba issued a pair of surprising free-market decrees on Thursday Aug. 27, 2010, allowing foreign investors to lease government land for up to 99 years, potentially touching off a golf-course building boom, and loosening state controls on commerce to let islanders grow and sell their own fruit and vegetables. Source: Flickr.

Vito Echevarria 
Freelance Journalist

Attendees of the “Cuba Opportunity Summit” – held on April 1, 2015 by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania at the NASDAQ Marketsite in New York City – consisted mainly of American companies and entrepreneurs, who are caught up with the gold rush-like fervor over the prospect of finally doing business with Cuba. That island, which has endured a harsh trade embargo imposed by Washington since its takeover by Fidel Castro and his Communist revolution, is perhaps the ultimate frontier market on the planet, since American companies have been forbidden from conducting any trade with that regime for decades.  The one glaring exception has been the opening of food trade, which Bill Clinton allowed before leaving office in 2000. Cuba has since become a multi-million-dollar market for various U.S. agricultural and food products.

President Obama’s December 2014 announcement to normalize U.S. relations with Cuba, which will presumably increase food export opportunities, travel, as well as openings in areas like banking, telecommunications and building supplies, is being viewed in many circles as a process that will ultimately end the ongoing U.S. trade embargo against Cuba. Speakers at the Wharton Cuba Summit, which was covered by CNBC (complete with on-site interviews by its Chief International Correspondent, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera), included top executives from Norwegian Cruise Line, Discovery Networks, Thomas Herzfeld Advisors, and NASDAQ, along with a stream of U.S. government officials (headed by Roberta Jacobson – Asst. Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs – who’s been leading Washington’s negotiations with Cuban officials to normalize diplomatic relations between the two countries), as well as think tanks from the Brookings Institute to the Americas Society. In other words, Cuba has finally “arrived” – receiving long overdue “prime-time” attention in the United States. Even some of the Cuban government officials that showed up were overwhelmed by the attention they were getting from fellow attendees.

Continue reading

Political Risk: Conceptualization, Definition, Categorization, and Methodologies

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2015.

Narendra Modi election poster with all the candidates' headshots visible against an orange background.

Narendra Modi election poster, 2014. Separatists called for a strike as authorities imposed a daytime curfew Monday across the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, barring residents from leaving their homes. Main roads leading into Srinagar were lined with razor wire to contain traffic, and police and paramilitary soldiers were patrolling on foot and in armored vehicles. These and other considerations contribute to high levels of political risk in Kashmir. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Vishrut Kansal
W.B. National University of Juridical Sciences in Kolkata, India

Abstract

The paper is aimed at presenting a conceptual analysis of the political risk that impacts investors, project sponsors, creditors, and host government alike. First, an attempt to conceptualize and define political risk is made along with its subsequent categorization into its different types. Then, the methodologies of mitigating and managing political risk are elucidated upon. Lastly, political risk insurance as a mitigating factor of political risk is briefly dwelt upon. While presenting this overview, concerted attempt has been made to identify the practical techniques that investors and host governments may adopt while undertaking decisions involving political risk.

Continue reading

Iran’s New Generation of Oil and Gas Contracts: Historical Mistrust and the Need for Foreign Investment

Originally published in Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2015.
Revised version published in Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 4, No. 2, February 2016.

A large mount is photographed with a long, winding road leading up to it.

Homa gas field, Hava Mount, 2011. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said his country intends to increase production from a giant joint gas field shared with neighboring Qatar, state TV reported on Sunday, Dec. 1, 2013. The report quoted Rouhani as saying Iran that intends to match Qatar’s production by 2017. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Reza Yeganehshakib, Ph.D.
Research Associate

Reza Yeganehshakib  holds a Ph.D. in history with a specialization in World and Middle Eastern history at the University of California, Irvine (UCI). He received a B.S. degree in Chemical Engineering from Iran Azad University, and an M.A. in history from UCI, where he serves as a Research Associate at the Samuel Jordan Center for Persian Studies. Dr. Yeganehshakib is a member of the Middle East Studies Association and the International Society for Iranian Studies. He is affiliated with the Persian Language Institute at California State University, Fullerton and was previously affiliated with the National Iranian Oil Company.

Abstract

After nationalizing the oil industry in Iran in 1951, the government passed protectionist laws that restrained foreign ownership of Iran’s oil fields and industries. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, these laws have been reinforced to further reflect the anti-Western ideological underpinnings of the revolution. Yet, after the Iran-Iraq War and the beginning of the era of so-called “reconstruction” in 1988, the Iranian government adopted several laws to encourage foreign investment, particularly in the country’s largest industry, oil and gas. These laws, chiefly the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act (FIPPA), despite having been revised several times, have not been successful in encouraging foreign companies to invest in Iran’s oil and gas industries. As a result, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran recently announced that it would issue a new generation of oil and gas contracts, Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPC) that are more attractive to foreign investors. This paper investigates possible challenges that Iran’s protectionist laws may pose for these contracts, especially in light of Iran’s prevailing political and religious anti-West/anti-imperialist ideology and Iran’s distrust towards the West after the fall of Mossadegh’s government in 1953. It also studies Iran’s political and legal realities and whether they might provide foreign investors with attractive incentives, such as partial or conditional ownership of the industries, for investment.

Continue reading

Vietnam Normalization Redux: Trade, Democracy, and Security

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 2015.

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson (third from right) is photographed meeting with Vietnamese Public Security Minister Tran Dai Quang (second from left) in a conference room Washington, D.C. Both US and Chinese flags are visible in the background.

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson (third from right) meets with Vietnamese Public Security Minister Tran Dai Quang (second from left) in Washington, D.C. on March 17. Discussions focused on cooperation in the realm of crime enforcement, but also touched on security, economic, war, and human rights matters. Photo: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.[1]

Anders Corr, Ph.D.[2]
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

From March 15-20 of this year, the Vietnamese Public Security Minister Tran Dai Quang met with top United States congressmen and law enforcement officials, including Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, and Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation James Comey. General Tran and U.S. officials focused on increasing cooperation between the two countries’ law enforcement authorities, but also addressed bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, legacy war issues, security including the South China Sea, and human rights. Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong will continue to push bilateral ties, likely through a visit to the United States this year. In November, President Obama will most likely visit Vietnam during his planned Asia trip.[3]

Continue reading

SWIFT Russia Sanctions: A Necessary Step for Ukraine and the World

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 2015.

Garegin Tosunyan Ashotovich, Russian banks association's President is photographed speaking at a conference.

Garegin Tosunyan Ashotovich, Russian banks association’ President, 2011.Tosunyan said during his conference at RIA Novosti, that the exclusion of Russia from SWIFT will benefit no one, adding that such statements are a form of blackmailing. The Russian ruble has continued its decline to just over 60 rubles against the dollar, from 35 rubles to the dollar in July 2014. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Sergey Fursa
Alexander Baldwin McCoy
Irene Kovalchuk

Sergey Fursa works for Dragon Capital in fixed-income sales in Ukraine. Alexander Baldwin McCoy is a former United States Marine and worked in counterintelligence for the U.S. Department of State from 2010-2013. Irene Kovalchuk worked in finance and banking in Ukraine for over 10 years.

‘No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were. Any man’s death diminishes me because I am involved in mankind; and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee’ (Ernest Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls).

Ukraine features prominently the media. The escalating political crisis and violence are spiraling out of control. News coverage paints an alarming picture of chaos and destruction, with NATO countries reluctant to get involved and put a stop to the madness. Many citizens of countries in Western Europe and America wonder why the suffering of the Ukrainian people should matter to them. What business is it of the people of Berlin or Paris or New York what happens in this distant land? In the cult French movie “The Toy” (1976), a child observes ‘the French only care about dead Frenchmen’[1]. Why should a regular citizen worry about what is going on in Eastern Europe, when it does not affect their life? The answer is simple. The crisis in Ukraine represents a greater threat than the mere stability of one state, and failing to respond will have disastrous ramifications around the globe.

Continue reading