Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 4, No. 3, March 2016

A Syrian refugee camp in Turkey, 2016. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon on Friday called on the Syrian government to “stop the violence in the name of humanity”, during a visit to the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan, close to the Syrian border. Source: European Parliament via Flickr.

Bhakti Mirchandani
Senior Vice President at An Alternative Investment Management Firm

As the war in Syria hit its five-year mark this past Tuesday, the European strategy for managing the nearly 1 million Syrian refugees[1] seeking asylum in Europe is not working.  While most of the refugees that arrived in Europe in 2015 left Syria last year, others are leaving countries of first asylum Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon for Europe after years of hardship.[2]  By way of background, first asylum countries are those that allow refugees to enter their territory for temporary asylum while waiting for resettlement or repatriation.  The European Commission is hoping that another deal with Turkey and stronger Schengen Area external border controls will tackle the biggest European refugee crisis since World War II.  As long as Syrian refugees lack the assistance they need in Syria and countries of first asylum, they will continue to make perilous journeys to Europe[3] on unseaworthy boats.[4]  While the EU and Turkey negotiate a controversial refugee exchange program and the European Commission weighs the establishment of a “European Border and Coast Guard” with a larger budget and more authority than current EU management agency Frontex,[5]  the US should fund financially sustainable relief and development to Jordan in parallel with its extensive humanitarian and military aid.  Jordan’s commitment to peace and moderation in the Middle East and cooperation with the US on security matters and counterterrorism make it a vital US ally.

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 4, No. 3, March 2016 

MANILA, PHILIPPINES – FEBRUARY 4, 2016 – A protester gestures during a protest rally against the legality of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) in front of the US Embassy in Manila, Philippines. (Photo by Richard James M. Mendoza / Pacific Press)

Timo Kivimäki[1]
University of Bath

In East Asia, two approaches for maintaining stability have been especially fruitful: developmentalism and non-interference. This article investigates the possibility of supplementing non-interference and developmentalism by building a legal order. It will explore ways that take the social construction of social structures seriously and applies them in a constructivist manner to the analysis of interaction of social realities with material realities and purposive agency. The intention is to show that the social construction of realities is also a realistic perspective, and that the perceived material realities, too, are largely dependent on social construction for their causal power in the creation of the situation of the South China Sea conflicts. Continue reading →

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 4, No. 2, February 2016

Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond (L), and President Xi Jinping (R) in London, 2015. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Kerry Brown, Ph.D.
King’s College, London

Abstract

This paper takes the example of the Chinese claims on the South China Sea, particularly since the appointment of Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China in late 2012, and looks at the ways in which the Party and the government interact over foreign policy issues, along with how others contribute to this process. It shows that the Party leadership works through articulation of highly abstract macro policy goals, issuing high-level guidance for state, military, corporate and public entities without risking specific details. There is then some space for these “lower bodies” to negotiate and create their own standpoint. This does not mean that the process is solely top-down. What it does mean is that the Party under Xi has a dynamic process by which it allows voices within society to contribute to the formulation of policy in an iterative manner. It also shows how for the Xi leadership the South China Sea is part of a process to establish other forms of legitimacy beyond those simply described as economic. In this way, the Party is able to present itself as the restorer of national pride and rejuvenation and gain immense political capital from this. In this context, the South China Sea is as much a domestic issue as a foreign policy one, something that is often missed in external analysis of this issue.

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 4, No. 1, January 2016

Two Filipino fishermen signal they are in distress to Sailors from USS Mustin (DDG 89) after their fishing boat was disabled in the South China Sea. Fishing rights in this region continue to be contested. Source: U.S. Pacific Fleet via Flickr.

Leonardo Bernard

Summary

One of the most important disputes that exist between states surrounding the South China Sea is over fishing rights, as most of the states bordering the South China Sea assert an exclusive right to fish in parts of it. For example, the Philippines and Vietnam claim that they have an exclusive right over fisheries resources in the waters within 200 nautical miles (M) of their respective mainland coasts. China also declares the right to exploit fisheries resources in the South China Sea, but not only in the waters within 200 M from its mainland coast and from the Paracel Islands. By using the ‘U-shaped line’, China’s claim extends beyond any possible exclusive economic zone (EEZ) limits that can be generated by its mainland and by any islands in the South China Sea over which it claims sovereignty. China, however, has not clarified the meaning of the U-shaped line map, nor the maritime zones generated by the islands in the South China Sea over which it claims sovereignty. Continue reading →

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 12, December 2015.

Below is the speech delivered by H.E. Ambassador Katalin Bogyay, Permanent Representative of Hungary to the UN in New York City on 20^th October, 2015 at the Reception on the occasion of the commemoration of the 23 October, 1956 revolution.

Your Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,

Security Council adopts historic resolution on youth, peace and security.  December 2015. UN Photo/Amanda Voisard

In the music of Egmont overture, Op. 84. Ludwig van Beethoven, one of the greatest composers of mankind expressed his own political concerns through the exaltation of the heroic sacrifice of a man condemned to death for having taken a valiant stand against oppression. It was composed during the period of the Napoleonic Wars, at a time when the French Empire had extended its domination over most of Europe.

The subject of the music and dramatic narrative is the life and heroism of a 16th-century Dutch nobleman, the Count of Egmont.

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