Rise of Environmental NGOs in China: Official Ambivalence and Contested Messages

Posted on January 10, 2014 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 8, December 2013.

Figure 1 is a bar graph titled "Registered NGOs (Civil Organizations) in China 1988 to 2009." and shows an upward trend.

Figure 1. Registered NGOs (Civil Organizations) in China 1988 to 2009. Data source: Xu Ying and Zhao Litao, 2013.

Ruge Gao
Cornell University

With China’s impressive economic growth over the past few decades has come an environmental cost that reaches from the countryside to the capital.[1] While some Chinese economists believe the lack of environmental regulation encourages uninhibited growth, the Chinese State Environmental Protection Agency and State Statistics Bureau have produced statistics that indicate that environmental damages have decreased growth by three percent.[2] Triggered most prominently by the 1998 Yangtze River Floods, the number of Chinese environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) began growing around 2000 and experienced explosive growth within the last decade. According to Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs statistics,[3] in 2008 China had approximately 212,000 social groups, with 5,330 being of the environmental variety. Many Chinese ENGOs are in the public eye, but must simultaneously satisfy international donors and local government officials in order to survive. Continue reading →

Political Risk to Investment in Iran: Sanctions, Inflation, Protectionism, War, Bonyads, and the IRGC

Posted on January 10, 2014 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 7, November 2013.

Figure 1 is a bar graph titled "Foreign Investment in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, March 19, 2012-March 19, 2013" and follows a parabolic shape.

Figure 1: Foreign Investment in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, March 19, 2012-March 19, 2013. Data Source: The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran News.

Reza Yeganehshakib
University of California

Despite a tumultuous recent political history that includes revolution, war and sanctions, relations between Iran and the West are improving and Western investors are increasingly interested. But, Iran’s politics cause sanctions, and the economy suffers from inflation. Protectionist laws are on the books, and in some cases economic crimes are punishable by death. Regardless of warming relations with the West, Iran has in the past reneged on its agreements, and war is still a risk with non-Western bordering countries and regional powers. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has nationalized foreign investments in the recent past, and the politically powerful revolutionary foundations known as Bonyads control large segments of the most lucrative investment sectors. Continue reading →

Political Risk in Latin America and the Caribbean: smart move from nimble players, a few populists, and a giant that misses one more opportunity

Posted on June 13, 2013 by admin

A graph titled "Pol vs Cred GDP" showing an upward trend.

Political vs. Credit Risk in Latin America and the Caribbean. Data source: International Monetary Fund and Standard & Poor’s, 12/2012.

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2013.

Evodio Kaltenecker
BBS Business School

The latest events in Latin America and the Caribbean provide good examples of the current political and economic tone in the region. On one hand, small and mid-sized economies such as Peru, Colombia, Chile and Mexico are working towards the advancement of the Pacific Alliance – an economic group whose agenda includes free trade and economic integration. On the other hand, a group of not-so-small economies still linger with populist recipes for government intervention, nationalization of companies, and manipulation of published government economic data. Continue reading →

Brazilian Growth Prospects: the Politics of Inflation, Taxes, and Infrastructure

Posted on May 28, 2013 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 1, May 2013.

A line graph titled "IPCA Rate of Inflation" depicting a parabolic curve.

IPCA Rate of Inflation. Data source: Banco Central do Brasil.

James R. Hunter
BBS Business School

Brazil has been the hot investment ticket internationally for six to eight years. The common wisdom is that it has outgrown its “country of the future” label and has become a country of the post-2008 financial crisis. Investors now expect Brazil to grow into a first-world economy. Not so fast. While annual growth between 2005 and 2010 was consistently above 5%, it has stagnated since mid-2011. In 2012, its GDP grew a paltry 0.9% — the weakest of the five BRICS countries. It is time to take a cold look at whether the political factors promoting growth in Brazil between 2005 and 2010 are still operational. Continue reading →

Protectionist clauses in the Philippine Constitution restrict foreign direct investment

Posted on May 23, 2013 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 1, May 2013.

Asia Foreign Direct Investment, 2003-2012.

Priscilla Tacujan, Ph.D.
Independent Consultant

With the investment-grade credit rating granted by Fitch Ratings in March, an improved international business reputation, and sound fiscal management, the Philippines is poised to become the next foreign direct investment (FDI) destination of Asia. Other conditions for a robust investment climate are in place: a large market, skilled human capital, youthful population, and strategic location that connects population centers across Asia. Also, the Philippines is increasingly open to international trade. By 2015, Southeast Asia will have the advantage of a single market through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Community (ASEAN). According to data provided in the World Economic Forum’s Global Enabling Trade Report 2012, the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are strong, making it attractive to at least a fraction of the foreign investors concerned over the Euro crisis.

Despite the improvement in the Philippine investment climate, the Philippine Constitution (1987) still has an antiquated article that supports laws restricting foreign ownership of property to 40% (Article XII), with minor adjustments and deviations by subsequent legislation. Removing the clause, and improving access and protections of foreign-owned business, would lead to a quantum leap in FDI and Philippine economic growth. Small changes to legislation are not enough. The Constitution needs to be changed in order to fully welcome foreign investors to the Philippines. Continue reading →