Ukraine’s Former President Yanukovych Deposited Billions of USD with China

Posted on February 28, 2015 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 2, February 2015.

Viktor Yanukovych shakes hands with Xi Jinping.

According to two independent JPR sources, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, left, deposited billions of dollars before and during his departure from Ukraine in the spring of 2014.

Anders Corr, Ph.D
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

Former President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych has deposited billions of dollars with the Chinese, according to two independent sources available to the Journal of Political Risk.

President Yanukovych deposited approximately $1 billion USD with China on either his first or second visit to that country, according to one of the sources. Two large pallets of cash, of approximately $1 billion USD, were delivered to China through Hong Kong.

The other source, which we accessed in April 2014 on a visit to Ukraine, said that President Yanukovych transferred most of his deposits to China prior to departing the country and closing the banks with which he was associated. His bankers fled the country at that time.

When President Yanukovych fled Ukraine for Russia in February 2014, he transferred billions of dollars in a hurry. He and his family closed their four banks, according to our source. President Yanukovych’s men stuffed several vehicles full of cash, and drove them to Russia. What is reported here for the first time is that most of his estimated $32 billion in assets were wired to China, according to our source.

Former President Yanukovych denies having foreign bank accounts.

Update (3/7/2015): An email request for comment to the People’s Bank of China was not returned. The JPR was unable to reach Viktor Yanukovych for comment, though he is thought to reside in Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Anders Corr, Ph.D. is the founder and principal of Corr Analytics. JPR Status: Report, archived 2/28/2015.

Russian Military Force Structure in Ukraine Area

Posted on February 28, 2015 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 2, February 2015.

A map with flags and strategies regarding Russian Military in Ukraine Region

This official document obtained by Corr Analytics reveals the force structure of Russian military personnel and equipment in and around Ukraine, including in Russia, Ukraine, and Transniestria.

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

Corr Analytics received official documents yesterday that reveal the force structure of Russian military personnel and equipment in and around Ukraine, including in Russia, Ukraine, and Transniestria. The key document is republished here, and details 63,200 personnel, 755 tanks, 2,610 armored vehicles, 305 multiple launch rocket systems, 955 artillery systems, 355 combat aircraft and helicopters, 30 combat ships, and 2 submarines.

The released document shows the locations of forces, including in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, Russia near the Ukrainian border, and Transdniestria. Of particular interest are Russian-flagged forces shown to be in the Donbas region, including 13,000 personnel, 290 tanks, 765 armored vehicles, 125 multiple-launch rocket systems, and 210 artillery systems.

The army arrayed against the Ukrainian military is clearly a powerful Russian force that surrounds the country. Yet, Ukrainian officials yesterday were optimistic about a Ukrainian win against Russia. Russian foreign reserves are running low and being burned at a remarkably high rate. The United States, United Kingdom, and Canada have finally broken with France and Germany, and put military advisors in Ukraine. Ukraine expects to receive Javelin anti-tank missiles, sophisticated artillery equipment, and other military assistance in the near future.

Ukraine will accept conditions imposed by the IMF for a $17.5B loan in the coming days. This will cause social unrest in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian citizens are expected to denounce such conditionality when the country is at war. Russian intelligence will likely take advantage of such unrest, according to the officials. However, Ukraine will accept the conditions in order to maintain unity with its allies and to obtain the much-needed loan.

Anders Corr, Ph.D. is the founder and principal of Corr Analytics. JPR Status: Report, archived 2/28/2015.

Tackling Corruption in Ukraine

Posted on January 13, 2015 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 1, January 2015.

Police and demonstrators prepare for another day Anti-government protest in Kiev, Ukraine. Ukrainian flags are visible in the crowd.

Shaky truce in Kiev. Police and demonstrators prepare for another day Anti-government protest in Kiev, Ukraine – 20 Feb 2014 At least 26 people have been killed and hundreds injured as violence once again flared between police and anti-government protesters, after several weeks of calm. The anti-government protesters are calling for the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych over corruption and an abandoned trade agreement with the European Union. Source: Sasha Maksymenko via Flickr.

Irene Kovalchuk
Senior Associate

Matthew Michaelides
Editor of the Journal of Political Risk

During the last year Ukraine has accelerated its transition toward democracy, started reforming its institutions, and introduced a package of anti-corruption laws. Nevertheless, the expelled ex-president, Viktor Yanukovich, accused of stealing billions from Ukraine and overseeing mass killings of civilians, has not been brought to justice. Only a small fraction of the equivalent of billions of dollars stolen by the “Yanukovich family” has been frozen.[1] At the same time, with mounting debts, the government needs the lost money more than ever. And Ukrainians will not have full faith in their new government without seeing those guilty of crimes punished.

Domestic and international actors must work diligently both to recover the government’s stolen assets and ensure that the level of government corruption witnessed under Yanukovich’s rule are never repeated. This would require effective cooperation among the Ukrainian government, the nation’s civil society and Western nations. But the consequences of insufficient action would be too costly for a country already under severe stress.

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Countering ISIS Recruitment in Western Nations

Posted on January 3, 2015 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 1, January 2015.

Katherine Leggiero

Executive Summary

Personal grievances associated with political, economic, social and religious aspects of Western society in conjunction with naiveté of war, Islam and terrorism may expedite the radicalization process and motivate both Western women and men to participate in ISIS’s cause. ISIS incentivizes the bay’ah and hijra obligation by offering a recruit new identity and a part in the founding of the Caliphate. Participating in ISIS’s jihad and founding of the Caliphate may also provide individuals experiencing relative deprivation with employment, basic needs, or politics and religious practices that aligns with their expectations of how society should operate. Westerners with Somali and Palestinian heritage are frequently socially marginalized and believe the Caliphate can provide them with a new life and group identity governed by religious law. While recent Western converts to Islam find a sense of purpose as ISIS members in being a part of the founding of the Caliphate and will use media (e.g. suicide missions, burning passport, propaganda video, social media recruiter) to prove their allegiance.

In turn, ISIS encourages its Western members to use their smartphones to instruct, guide and recruit other Westerners on their social media accounts (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, Kik, Ask.fm, Skype, and blogs). ISIS facilitators recruit at community events (religious seminars and community activities) and schools (e.g. high schools and colleges), but require an ISIS sheikh recommendation and “jihad mentor” for Western recruits to be selected and to prevent US intelligence collection. ISIS keeps its messaging simple (“join the Caliphate”) within its branding and recruitment campaign on its Google Play App, The Dawn of Glad Tidings and its monthly electronic magazine, Dabiq. ISIS’s narrative uses group identity to prevent an individual from employing any other values that could disrupt ISIS’s group coherence and unified action. ISIS makes the sacred value (e.g. governance by Allah) incompatible with other values, which in turn prevents trade-offs and concessions from occurring within their in-group. When the value becomes non-negotiable, the individual relies on emotional processing opposed to complex reasoning processes. ISIS’s narrative uses group identity to prevent individuals from employing any other values that could disrupt ISIS’s group coherence and unified actions.

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Dear Raúl, querido Obama, dear Pope Francis

Posted on December 21, 2014 by admin

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 2, No. 12, December 2014.

Tatlin’s Whisper #6 is a performance art piece by Tania Bruguera first performed in 2009 in Havana. Ms. Bruguera invited audience members to speak their minds without censorship from a podium flanked by two persons in military uniform. In reference to Fidel Castro’s speech of January 8, 1959, in which a white dove alighted on his shoulder, a dove was placed on the shoulders of speakers. Ms. Bruguera’s call for December 30 demonstrations by Cubans is detailed on the #yotambienexigo Facebook and Twitter sites.

Dear Raúl, querido Obama, dear Pope Francis,

First let me offer congratulations, because politicians are expected to make history and today, December 17th, 2014, has been a historic day.

You have made history by proposing that the embargo/blockade become empty words. With the restoration of diplomatic relations, you have transformed the meaning of fifty-three years of policies defined by one side (the United States) and used by the other (Cuba) to ideologically guide the daily lives of Cubans everywhere. I wonder if this gesture is not also a proposal to kill ideology itself? Cuba is finally seeing itself, not from the perspective of death, but of life. But, I wonder, what will that life be and who will have the right to that new life?

Very well then, Raúl,

As a Cuban, today I call for the right to know what is being planned with our lives and, as part of this new phase, for the establishment of a politically transparent process in which we will all be able to participate, and to have the right to hold different opinions without punishment. When it comes time to reconsider what has defined who we are, that it not include the same intolerance and indifference which has so far accompanied changes in Cuba—a process in which acquiescence is the only option.

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