Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 4, April 2015.

Narendra Modi election poster, 2014. Separatists called for a strike as authorities imposed a daytime curfew Monday across the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, barring residents from leaving their homes. Main roads leading into Srinagar were lined with razor wire to contain traffic, and police and paramilitary soldiers were patrolling on foot and in armored vehicles. These and other considerations contribute to high levels of political risk in Kashmir. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Vishrut Kansal
W.B. National University of Juridical Sciences in Kolkata, India

Abstract

The paper is aimed at presenting a conceptual analysis of the political risk that impacts investors, project sponsors, creditors, and host government alike. First, an attempt to conceptualize and define political risk is made along with its subsequent categorization into its different types. Then, the methodologies of mitigating and managing political risk are elucidated upon. Lastly, political risk insurance as a mitigating factor of political risk is briefly dwelt upon. While presenting this overview, concerted attempt has been made to identify the practical techniques that investors and host governments may adopt while undertaking decisions involving political risk.

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 2015.

U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson (third from right) meets with Vietnamese Public Security Minister Tran Dai Quang (second from left) in Washington, D.C. on March 17. Discussions focused on cooperation in the realm of crime enforcement, but also touched on security, economic, war, and human rights matters. Photo: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.[1]

From March 15-20 of this year, the Vietnamese Public Security Minister Tran Dai Quang met with top United States congressmen and law enforcement officials, including Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, and Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation James Comey. General Tran and U.S. officials focused on increasing cooperation between the two countries’ law enforcement authorities, but also addressed bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, legacy war issues, security including the South China Sea, and human rights. Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong will continue to push bilateral ties, likely through a visit to the United States this year. In November, President Obama will most likely visit Vietnam during his planned Asia trip.[3]

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 2015.

Garegin Tosunyan Ashotovich, Russian banks association’ President, 2011.Tosunyan said during his conference at RIA Novosti, that the exclusion of Russia from SWIFT will benefit no one, adding that such statements are a form of blackmailing. The Russian ruble has continued its decline to just over 60 rubles against the dollar, from 35 rubles to the dollar in July 2014. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Sergey Fursa
Alexander Baldwin McCoy
Irene Kovalchuk

Sergey Fursa works for Dragon Capital in fixed-income sales in Ukraine. Alexander Baldwin McCoy is a former United States Marine and worked in counterintelligence for the U.S. Department of State from 2010-2013. Irene Kovalchuk worked in finance and banking in Ukraine for over 10 years.

‘No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were. Any man’s death diminishes me because I am involved in mankind; and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee’ (Ernest Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls).

Ukraine features prominently the media. The escalating political crisis and violence are spiraling out of control. News coverage paints an alarming picture of chaos and destruction, with NATO countries reluctant to get involved and put a stop to the madness. Many citizens of countries in Western Europe and America wonder why the suffering of the Ukrainian people should matter to them. What business is it of the people of Berlin or Paris or New York what happens in this distant land? In the cult French movie “The Toy” (1976), a child observes ‘the French only care about dead Frenchmen’[1]. Why should a regular citizen worry about what is going on in Eastern Europe, when it does not affect their life? The answer is simple. The crisis in Ukraine represents a greater threat than the mere stability of one state, and failing to respond will have disastrous ramifications around the globe.

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 2015.

Announcement after negotiations in Lausanne at the Iran Talks, 2015. The United States and Iran are plunging back into negotiations in a bid to end a decades-long standoff that has raised the specter of an Iranian nuclear arsenal, a new atomic arms race in the Middle East and even a U.S. or Israeli military intervention. Source: European Parliament via Flickr.

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

Iran is seeking to remove all binding United Nations sanctions, according to an official interviewed by the Journal of Political Risk on Monday. The official said that Iran has offered to leave the non-binding UN sanctions in place. “As the P5+1 and Iran race to meet the March deadline for a political framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program,” said the official, “one of the main obstacles is how to lift United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed on Iran.” According to the official, “Iran has insisted that those measures set out in the four resolutions adopted by the Security Council from 2006 to 2010 should be lifted, especially those provisions seen as legally binding for Member States under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.”

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 3, No.3, March 2015.

Zinsmeister argues against using state policy toward cigarettes to discern marijuana policy in Mexico.

Jeffrey E. Zinsmeister
Consultant

Abstract

Marijuana legalization advocates in Mexico often point to the cigarette market as a regulatory model for marijuana—a way to control consumption, assure product quality, and reduce the power of narcotraffickers.  While the comparison between the two markets is apt—both are capital-intensive industries that favor economies of scale—it is not a favorable one in the Mexican context.  Due to these market dynamics and pervasive corruption, the Mexican cigarette business is divided into a legal business dominated by two multinational tobacco companies, and a large black market dominated by drug traffickers.  Accusations of corrupt practices are rife with respect to both markets, practices that undermine anti-smoking regulations, increase smoking rates (especially among minors), and enrich organized criminal syndicates.  Perhaps as a consequence, Mexico’s anti-smoking program yields far less in government revenues than it must pay out in increased public health costs.  As legalized marijuana would likely follow this same negative pattern, legalization policies will likely degrade public safety and health in Mexico.

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