DeepSeek’s Collision Course with Xi

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 3, March 2025

By Vaibhav Panwar

President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, 5 September 2024

President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, 5 September 2024. Source: President Paul Kagame via Flickr.

Fresh from the highs of DeepSeek’s ‘Sputnik moment’ in the AI race, Xi Jinping hosted a rare meeting with the titans of industry — notably the tech sector — in Beijing on February 16th. The event was attended by heads of BYD, Huawei, Deepseek, and other stalwarts. However, amidst these giants stood a tiny man with a big pedigree: Jack Ma. The tech baron from Hangzhou, who once pulled the strings of one of China’s largest tech conglomerates, The Alibaba group, is renowned for his influence. The company had its fingers in profitable pies like online wholesaling, e-commerce, and online transactions. Its fintech arm, Alipay, had racked up north of a billion users by the end of 2020. Ma was having a dream run: in October 2014, he found himself on the front page of newspapers around the world when the recently concluded Alibaba IPO breached the $25 billion mark – the biggest ever— leaving the world in awe of his role as the symbol of Chinese entrepreneurial spirit and China’s sprawling economy. Ma’s empire was firing on all cylinders; on single’s day 2019 — China’s answer to Black Friday — Alibaba and its subsidiaries did $38 billion in sales in 24 hours. Now, fast-forward to fall 2020: another Alibaba entity, ANT Group, was about to go public, all set to raise north of $35 billion based on the pre-subscriptions. The largest stock-offering in history was set to take place in Shanghai, creating a landmark moment for the Chinese economy, and cementing Ma’s status as one of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs. Beijing, however, was not so comfortable with the market consolidation of the tech giant from Hangzhou — or for that matter — the public criticism lobbed by Ma against Chinese banks at Shanghai’s Bund Conference. To nobody’s surprise — besides, perhaps his own — Jack Ma was called in for regulatory meetings by the Chinese central bank (PBOC) shortly after his remarks. Soon, the Chinese regulators would go on to pull the plug on the IPO right before the launch day, which was widely believed to be a disciplinary move against Ma over his comments. Ma was subsequently gone from the public eye, until he popped up in Japan a couple of years later.

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Amodei’s AI Plan To Democratize China

Image of US and Chinese flags painted on computer chip.

Flags of the USA and China on a semiconductor. William Potter.

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2025

By Anders Corr

A new strategy that could peacefully democratize China and other autocratic states was published recently. By ensuring a democratic lead in artificial intelligence (AI), its benefits could be used to incentivize autocracies into nonaggression against democracies. Then, AI could unblock information and defeat autocratic censorship, ultimately improving education in autocracies to the point that Chinese people themselves would successfully drive and achieve democratic reforms. 

While using the stick of military AI to deter autocracies has long been discussed, the idea of using the carrots from AI to buy peace with autocracies, and then using the same technology to defeat censorship and achieve democratization in those countries, had not, to the best of this author’s knowledge, been published before October. Continue reading

The Risks of AI: An Interview with Georgetown’s Helen Toner

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 1, January 2022

Helen Toner's headshot depicts her smiling wearing a green shirt and grey blazer.

Helen Toner, Director of Strategy at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University.

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

The JPR interview with Helen Toner, the Director of Strategy at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University, was conducted via email between 4 January 2022 and 13 January 2022.

Corr: What are the national security risks and benefits of AI?

Toner: This is a huge question! AI is a general-purpose technology, meaning that—like electricity or the computer—its impacts will be felt across practically all industries and areas of society. Accordingly, it presents a huge range of potential risks and benefits from a national security perspective. One way of trying to summarize the possibilities might be as follows: the benefits will largely be in line with the kinds of benefits we have seen from increasingly sophisticated computing technology more generally: greater efficiency and accuracy, as well as the ability to perform tasks at scales impossible for humans (think: how Google search trawls the web). In terms of risks, one breakdown proposed by Zwetsloot and Dafoe is to think in terms of risks from accidents (i.e. unintended outcomes from using AI), misuse (i.e. the deliberate use of AI to cause harm), and structural changes (i.e. how progress in AI shapes surrounding systems and dynamics). I realize this is fairly abstract, but it’s impossible to enumerate specific risks without narrowing the scope to particular application areas, time frames, and actors.

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Politics in the De-politicised: TikTok as a Source of China’s Soft Power

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 9, No. 11, November 2021

A person's hands are depicted holding a smartphone featuring the TikTik logo on its screen.

TikTok logo. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Zuza Nazaruk

Last year’s “TikTok war” revealed unprecedented hostility of the US government towards the Chinese tech newcomer. The seemingly innocuous software was developed by ByteDance, a Chinese unicorn companyTikTok is a sister app of Douyin, created for the Chinese market. Both apps allow users to share and watch short videos. In July 2020, then-President Donald Trump accused TikTok of a series of breaches, the most serious of which was sharing user data with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (Levine, 2020). Yet, some experts, including Adam Segal from the Council of Foreign Relations, considered the near-ban a smokescreen to hinder the growth of the most globally successful Chinese app to date (Campbell, 2020). In 2020, TikTok was the most downloaded app globally, with 89 million new users just in the US (Geyser, 2021). To date, 23% of Americans use or have watched TikTok, with an average American user having spent 14.3 hours monthly on the app in 2020 (Tankovska, 2021).

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“Winning” the Geopolitical Competition with China

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 9, No. 2, February 2021

The image is a cartoon depiction of a graph on an upward trajectory. Following three graph bars, two cartoon chess pieces and a bull's eye continue the upward graph trajectory.

Source: Wikimedia

Randall H. Cook
Consultant

By all accounts, the U.S.-China strategic competition is alive and well.  The news that China displaced the United States in 2020 as the world’s preferred destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was followed closely by publication of a new “Longer Telegram” proposing a U.S. whole of government strategy to contain PRC Premier Xi Jinping’s ambition to realign the geopolitical structure with China as the new fulcrum.  The Biden Administration has sharply changed tack from its predecessor on a range of policies.  But on China, there is remarkable continuity.  The Trump Administration reset the U.S. strategic paradigm and there will be no going back.  Complex interdependent engagement is out; realist bipolar competition is the name of the new (but really, a back to the future sort of) game.

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