DeepSeek’s Collision Course with Xi

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 3, March 2025

By Vaibhav Panwar

President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, 5 September 2024

President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, 5 September 2024. Source: President Paul Kagame via Flickr.

Fresh from the highs of DeepSeek’s ‘Sputnik moment’ in the AI race, Xi Jinping hosted a rare meeting with the titans of industry — notably the tech sector — in Beijing on February 16th. The event was attended by heads of BYD, Huawei, Deepseek, and other stalwarts. However, amidst these giants stood a tiny man with a big pedigree: Jack Ma. The tech baron from Hangzhou, who once pulled the strings of one of China’s largest tech conglomerates, The Alibaba group, is renowned for his influence. The company had its fingers in profitable pies like online wholesaling, e-commerce, and online transactions. Its fintech arm, Alipay, had racked up north of a billion users by the end of 2020. Ma was having a dream run: in October 2014, he found himself on the front page of newspapers around the world when the recently concluded Alibaba IPO breached the $25 billion mark – the biggest ever— leaving the world in awe of his role as the symbol of Chinese entrepreneurial spirit and China’s sprawling economy. Ma’s empire was firing on all cylinders; on single’s day 2019 — China’s answer to Black Friday — Alibaba and its subsidiaries did $38 billion in sales in 24 hours. Now, fast-forward to fall 2020: another Alibaba entity, ANT Group, was about to go public, all set to raise north of $35 billion based on the pre-subscriptions. The largest stock-offering in history was set to take place in Shanghai, creating a landmark moment for the Chinese economy, and cementing Ma’s status as one of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs. Beijing, however, was not so comfortable with the market consolidation of the tech giant from Hangzhou — or for that matter — the public criticism lobbed by Ma against Chinese banks at Shanghai’s Bund Conference. To nobody’s surprise — besides, perhaps his own — Jack Ma was called in for regulatory meetings by the Chinese central bank (PBOC) shortly after his remarks. Soon, the Chinese regulators would go on to pull the plug on the IPO right before the launch day, which was widely believed to be a disciplinary move against Ma over his comments. Ma was subsequently gone from the public eye, until he popped up in Japan a couple of years later.

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Youth Employment in Uzbekistan: Challenges and Opportunities

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 2, February 2025

By Adkhamjon Janobiddinov

October 23, 2023 - USAID Administrator Samantha Power conversed with students at a secondary school in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Administrator Power listened to the youth speak about what motivates and encourages them to be active participants in society and their country’s development. The Administrator announced a new initiative to help improve the quality of instruction, materials, and support that every child needs to succeed in school, with an initial-year investment of $4.5 million. Photo by Isaac Blake/USAID.

October 23, 2023 – USAID Administrator Samantha Power conversed with students at a secondary school in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Ms. Power listened to the youth speak about what motivates and encourages them to be active participants in society and their country’s development. She announced an initial $4.5m towards improving quality of instruction. Photo by Isaac Blake/USAID.

Uzbekistan is a country with a huge youth population. According to latest reports, more than 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is composed of those below the age of 30. According to 2021 World Bank data on youth employment in Uzbekistan, the country’s population will remain young for the next 30 years. Although this can increase Uzbekistan’s economic potential, it may also bring employment challenges due to a higher demand for jobs. This article addresses the main challenges in youth employment in Uzbekistan and offers possible solutions.

According to the Youth Affairs Agency of Uzbekistan’s 2024 briefing on youth affairs, there are 342,000 unemployed youth across the country. The rest of the youth are employed in various sectors, including agriculture, textiles, construction, and services. It is also important to highlight that Uzbekistan has a huge informal sector, where 5.5 million people are employed. An additional 6.8 million people are engaged in the official sector. There is also a considerable number of youth working abroad. Although official data shows that the number of Uzbeks working abroad is 2 million, it is said that the actual number could be twice as high.

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What if The Houthis were in Malacca?

STRAIT OF MALACCA (Oct. 23, 2014) The Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigate USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG 60) conducts a passing exercise with the Indonesian Navy Sigma-class corvette KRI Sultan Hasanuddin (366). Rodney M. Davis, stationed in Everett, Wash., is on patrol in the 7th Fleet area of responsibility supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Derek A. Harkins/Released)

Strait of Malacca (Oct. 23, 2014). The Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigate USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG 60) conducts a passing exercise with the Indonesian Navy Sigma-class corvette KRI Sultan Hasanuddin (366). Rodney M. Davis, stationed in Everett, Wash., is on patrol in the 7th Fleet area of responsibility supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Derek A. Harkins/Released)

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2025

By Vaibhav Panwar


“For in tremendous extremities human souls are like drowning men; well enough they know they are in peril; well enough they know the causes of that peril; nevertheless, the sea is the sea, and these drowning men do drown.”    — Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Between October 7th and most of 2024, the Houthi militia of Yemen earned its entry into the pantheon of global armed resistances— and the wider world’s list of threats to everyday life— with their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. While nowhere close to some of the infamous acts of terrorism committed globally in measures of human fatalities, the Houthis, however, have managed to hit the world where it hurts: commercial shipping chokepoints. Despite multiple countries’ naval efforts, the Red Sea and Suez Canal have observed a sizable drop in maritime traffic as ships opt to take the safer, but much longer routes to European ports. This often adds tens of thousands of nautical miles to their journeys, and with it inefficiencies to their cost, lead time, and the environment.

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Amodei’s AI Plan To Democratize China

Image of US and Chinese flags painted on computer chip.

Flags of the USA and China on a semiconductor. William Potter.

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2025

By Anders Corr

A new strategy that could peacefully democratize China and other autocratic states was published recently. By ensuring a democratic lead in artificial intelligence (AI), its benefits could be used to incentivize autocracies into nonaggression against democracies. Then, AI could unblock information and defeat autocratic censorship, ultimately improving education in autocracies to the point that Chinese people themselves would successfully drive and achieve democratic reforms. 

While using the stick of military AI to deter autocracies has long been discussed, the idea of using the carrots from AI to buy peace with autocracies, and then using the same technology to defeat censorship and achieve democratization in those countries, had not, to the best of this author’s knowledge, been published before October. Continue reading

Putin’s Nightmares and the Threat of a Nuclear “Accident”

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 12, December 2024 

By Christopher Shove, Ph.D.

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan " No More Time"

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan “No More Time”. Anthony D Barraclough via Flickr.

As Russian losses mount, Putin’s threat of a nuclear incident becomes all the more likely. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report dated 10 December 2024, Russian casualties from February 24, 2022 to December 10, 2024 include the following: 755,940 personnel, 9,524 tanks, and 19,596 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). While Ukraine’s estimate may appear high, there is consensus from many intelligence sources that Russian losses are substantial. A recent example is the increase in losses in the Russia Kursk oblast where Ukraine counter-attacked and has occupied since August 6, 2024. Here, Ukrainian soldiers report 10 or more daily waves of Russian attacks on the Kursk battlefield with almost all stopped, resulting in massive Russian losses. As a result, Russia has transferred soldiers from other areas to the Kursk battlefield – with only losses and no gains against Ukraine’s clever tactics. Continue reading