Category Archives: Opinion

Putin’s Nightmares and the Threat of a Nuclear “Accident”

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 12, December 2024 

By Christopher Shove, Ph.D.

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan " No More Time"

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan “No More Time”. Anthony D Barraclough via Flickr.

As Russian losses mount, Putin’s threat of a nuclear incident becomes all the more likely. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report dated 10 December 2024, Russian casualties from February 24, 2022 to December 10, 2024 include the following: 755,940 personnel, 9,524 tanks, and 19,596 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). While Ukraine’s estimate may appear high, there is consensus from many intelligence sources that Russian losses are substantial. A recent example is the increase in losses in the Russia Kursk oblast where Ukraine counter-attacked and has occupied since August 6, 2024. Here, Ukrainian soldiers report 10 or more daily waves of Russian attacks on the Kursk battlefield with almost all stopped, resulting in massive Russian losses. As a result, Russia has transferred soldiers from other areas to the Kursk battlefield – with only losses and no gains against Ukraine’s clever tactics. Continue reading →

Leadership Reaffirmed: A Blueprint for America’s Global Strategy toward China

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 11, November 2024 

By Yan Bennett

Donald Trump poses for his official White House portrait

Donald J. Trump. Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.

Dear President-elect Trump,

Congratulations on your recent victory. The American people have reaffirmed your leadership, granting you a renewed mandate to continue advancing the policies that prioritize the security, prosperity, and strength of our nation. This victory represents an endorsement of your commitment to putting America first and underscores the opportunity to build on the significant strides made during your first administration.

As stated in your first National Security Strategy (NSS), your administration laid out “a strategic vision for protecting the American people and preserving our way of life, promoting our prosperity, preserving peace through strength, and advancing American influence in the world” (NSS, 2017 ii). The American people have placed their confidence in your ability to navigate these immense challenges with steady strength and assertiveness.   Continue reading →

It’s Past Time to Secure the Internet

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 11, November 2024 

The image depicts a world globe focusing on America.

Nick Aldwin via Flickr

By Tim Sell

If we’ve learned anything in the last three years, it’s that open borders don’t work. They put American citizens at risk. Why haven’t we learned, over the last thirty years, that an open Internet causes the same problems? I read about problems everyday from Russian hackers and Iranian agents creating election havoc and stealing identities and money. About a year ago, I experienced bank fraud and identity theft. When I reported this to my local police department, I was told nothing could be done,
as the attack came from “overseas” on the Internet.

Continue reading →

A review of Political Risk: Facing the Threat of Global Insecurity in the Twenty-First Century

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 6, June 2024

Ndzalama Mathebula
University of Johannesburg
The image shows the cover of a book titled "Political Risk: Facing the Threat of Global Insecurity in the Twenty-First Century." The authors listed at the top are Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart. The cover features a globe, cracked open in the middle, revealing a fragmented and divided world map. At the bottom, there is a quote from Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, praising the book as "Smart. Informative. Overdue." The overall design is clean, with a predominantly white background and blue and black text.

Source: Weidnfeld&Nicolson

The book Political Risk: Facing the Threat of Global Insecurity in the Twenty-First Century by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart provides a remarkable overview of the political risk discipline, demonstrating its evolution and growing literature. The ten-chapter book is carefully curated to identify the importance of stakeholders understanding political risk and its evolution in the present century. The writings presented in the book are relevant, but not limited to, businesspersons, government actors, international relations practitioners, corporate personnel, policymakers, organizations, and students – especially given the rate at which the world is changing.

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Italy’s New Government: Business as Usual

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 11, No. 1, January 2023

Lorenzo Ammirati

The image depicts a poster with a stylized black-and-white illustration of a woman wearing a military-style uniform and cap, reminiscent of fascist propaganda art. The background features the Italian flag with vertical green, white, and red stripes. Below the image, in bold black and red text, is the label "MUSS-MELONI", which is a play on the names of Benito Mussolini, the Italian fascist dictator, and Giorgia Meloni, the Italian politician. The image appears to be a piece of street art or protest art, criticizing Meloni by drawing a parallel between her and Mussolini.

Poster of Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy Party, 2022. Source: Duncan Cumming via Flickr.

Nationalist identarian right-wing party Fratelli d’Italia (“Brothers of Italy”) was the only major Italian party to oppose former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “national unity” coalition government which governed Italy between February 2021 and September 2022. Among the key campaign promises made by Fratelli d’Italia’s leader and current Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during the electoral campaign of September 2022 was a break with the economic policies of the Draghi government. However, the first Italian female Prime Minister has thus far demonstrated the opposite orientation.

In fact, Meloni’s sphere of decision making on economic policy is severely limited. Italy’s extremely high levels of public debt (above 150% of GDP) coupled with weak trust from financial markets and the European Union’s tight fiscal rules make it very costly (both financially and reputationally) for any Italian government to finance new public policies. Additionally, investments are currently mainly being made through the European Union’s Recovery Instrument, an ad-hoc fund created after the COVID-19 pandemic which lends money for EU approved projects, greatly constraining the power of the Italian government.

Continue reading →