DeepSeek’s Collision Course with Xi

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 3, March 2025

By Vaibhav Panwar

President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, 5 September 2024

President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing, 5 September 2024. Source: President Paul Kagame via Flickr.

Fresh from the highs of DeepSeek’s ‘Sputnik moment’ in the AI race, Xi Jinping hosted a rare meeting with the titans of industry — notably the tech sector — in Beijing on February 16th. The event was attended by heads of BYD, Huawei, Deepseek, and other stalwarts. However, amidst these giants stood a tiny man with a big pedigree: Jack Ma. The tech baron from Hangzhou, who once pulled the strings of one of China’s largest tech conglomerates, The Alibaba group, is renowned for his influence. The company had its fingers in profitable pies like online wholesaling, e-commerce, and online transactions. Its fintech arm, Alipay, had racked up north of a billion users by the end of 2020. Ma was having a dream run: in October 2014, he found himself on the front page of newspapers around the world when the recently concluded Alibaba IPO breached the $25 billion mark – the biggest ever— leaving the world in awe of his role as the symbol of Chinese entrepreneurial spirit and China’s sprawling economy. Ma’s empire was firing on all cylinders; on single’s day 2019 — China’s answer to Black Friday — Alibaba and its subsidiaries did $38 billion in sales in 24 hours. Now, fast-forward to fall 2020: another Alibaba entity, ANT Group, was about to go public, all set to raise north of $35 billion based on the pre-subscriptions. The largest stock-offering in history was set to take place in Shanghai, creating a landmark moment for the Chinese economy, and cementing Ma’s status as one of the world’s most successful entrepreneurs. Beijing, however, was not so comfortable with the market consolidation of the tech giant from Hangzhou — or for that matter — the public criticism lobbed by Ma against Chinese banks at Shanghai’s Bund Conference. To nobody’s surprise — besides, perhaps his own — Jack Ma was called in for regulatory meetings by the Chinese central bank (PBOC) shortly after his remarks. Soon, the Chinese regulators would go on to pull the plug on the IPO right before the launch day, which was widely believed to be a disciplinary move against Ma over his comments. Ma was subsequently gone from the public eye, until he popped up in Japan a couple of years later.

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Youth Employment in Uzbekistan: Challenges and Opportunities

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 2, February 2025

By Adkhamjon Janobiddinov

October 23, 2023 - USAID Administrator Samantha Power conversed with students at a secondary school in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Administrator Power listened to the youth speak about what motivates and encourages them to be active participants in society and their country’s development. The Administrator announced a new initiative to help improve the quality of instruction, materials, and support that every child needs to succeed in school, with an initial-year investment of $4.5 million. Photo by Isaac Blake/USAID.

October 23, 2023 – USAID Administrator Samantha Power conversed with students at a secondary school in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Ms. Power listened to the youth speak about what motivates and encourages them to be active participants in society and their country’s development. She announced an initial $4.5m towards improving quality of instruction. Photo by Isaac Blake/USAID.

Uzbekistan is a country with a huge youth population. According to latest reports, more than 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is composed of those below the age of 30. According to 2021 World Bank data on youth employment in Uzbekistan, the country’s population will remain young for the next 30 years. Although this can increase Uzbekistan’s economic potential, it may also bring employment challenges due to a higher demand for jobs. This article addresses the main challenges in youth employment in Uzbekistan and offers possible solutions.

According to the Youth Affairs Agency of Uzbekistan’s 2024 briefing on youth affairs, there are 342,000 unemployed youth across the country. The rest of the youth are employed in various sectors, including agriculture, textiles, construction, and services. It is also important to highlight that Uzbekistan has a huge informal sector, where 5.5 million people are employed. An additional 6.8 million people are engaged in the official sector. There is also a considerable number of youth working abroad. Although official data shows that the number of Uzbeks working abroad is 2 million, it is said that the actual number could be twice as high.

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Modelling Country Risk of Zambia

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2024

Simon Muwando1
University of Lusaka

Victor Gumbo2
University of Botswana

Gelson Tembo3
University of Zambia

 

Abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the flow of transnational investments following increased internationalization and globalization of firms in the previous decade. Country risk exposure is a cause for concern for all the institutions that are engaged in multinational trade and finance. The main objective of this study was to model the Zambia’s country risk. A mixed method with concurrent research design was employed. An autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on annual data from the 1994 to 2018 period. Country beta was used as a proxy for indicating country risk. The findings of the study revealed that the main determinants of country risk of Zambia in the short run are beta, current account balance, political risk, unemployment rate, and short-term interest rates. In the long run, country risk of Zambia is mainly influenced by current account balance, betas, political risk and unemployment rate. Effective policies need to be implemented by authorities to manage persistent current account deficits and political risk.

Key Terms: country risk; country risk analysis; internationalization; globalization; autoregressive distributed lag; Zambia; globalization

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Modelling the Country Risk of Zambia

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 3, March 2022

Figure 1 depicts the international ranking of Zambia in terms of corruption. The graph shows an upward trend between 2001 and 2007, followed by a downward trend until 2015. An upward trend followed between 2015 and 2018.

Simon Muwando
University of Lusaka

Victor Gumbo
University of Botswana

Gelson Tembo
University of Zambia

Abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the flow of transnational investments following increased internationalization and globalization of firms in the previous decade. Country risk exposure is a cause for concern for all the institutions that are engaged in multinational trade and finance. The main objective of this study is modelling Zambia’s country risk. A mixed method with concurrent research design was employed. Personal interviews were the main instrument for collection of primary data and snowball sampling was used to select the interviewees. Secondary data was collected from the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LSE), Ministry of Finance, Bank of Zambia and Central Statistical Office. An autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on annual data for the 1994 to 2018 period. This approach was chosen as it works best for small samples. The findings of the study revealed that the short run drivers for country risk of Zambia are beta, current account balance, political risk, unemployment rate and weighted short term interest rates. Current account balance was found to positively affect country risk while beta, political stability, and weighted short term interest rates negatively influence it.  The study findings established that the long run determinants of country risk of Zambia are current account balance, betas, political risk, and unemployment rate. From the study findings, current account balance positively influences country risk of Zambia whereas beta, and political stability negatively influence country risk of Zambia. The study concluded that the major determinant of country risk of Zambia in the short run and long run is current account balance as it has significant positive influence. Effective policies need to be implemented by authorities to manage or reduce persistent current account deficits and political risk, in order to manage country risk.

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Emerging Market Index: An Interview with Life + Liberty’s Perth Tolle

Journal of Political Risk, Vol.9, No. 11, November 2021

Perth Tolle is depicted smiling in a white shirt and black blazer.

Perth Tolle, the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes and the creator of the Freedom 100 EM Index.

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

This JPR interview with Perth Tolle, founder of Life + Liberty Indexes and creator of the Freedom 100 EM Index, was conducted via email between 14 September 2021 and the 25 November 2021. 

Corr: Can you please explain what your ETF is for those who have no financial experience?

Tolle: An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a tradable basket of securities, similar to a mutual fund. But unlike mutual funds, ETFs trade on exchanges, and are known for their transparency, tax efficiency, and lower cost.

Most ETFs track an index. And most indexes are market capitalization weighted – where the biggest companies,  and countries, by their market capitalization, get the biggest allocations in the index.

There are three main categories of country classifications for global stocks – developed markets (DM), emerging markets (EM) and frontier markets (FM). Continue reading