Modelling Country Risk of Zambia

Posted on August 16, 2024 by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2024

Simon Muwando¹
University of Lusaka

Victor Gumbo²
University of Botswana

Gelson Tembo³
University of Zambia

Abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the flow of transnational investments following increased internationalization and globalization of firms in the previous decade. Country risk exposure is a cause for concern for all the institutions that are engaged in multinational trade and finance. The main objective of this study was to model the Zambia’s country risk. A mixed method with concurrent research design was employed. An autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on annual data from the 1994 to 2018 period. Country beta was used as a proxy for indicating country risk. The findings of the study revealed that the main determinants of country risk of Zambia in the short run are beta, current account balance, political risk, unemployment rate, and short-term interest rates. In the long run, country risk of Zambia is mainly influenced by current account balance, betas, political risk and unemployment rate. Effective policies need to be implemented by authorities to manage persistent current account deficits and political risk.

Key Terms: country risk; country risk analysis; internationalization; globalization; autoregressive distributed lag; Zambia; globalization

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Genocide in The People’s Republic of China

Posted on July 20, 2022 by Assistant Editor

Violations of International Criminal Law in the Suppression of Falun Gong

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 7, July 2022

Caylan Ford

ABSTRACT

Falun Gong practitioners hold yellow banners with writing in red characters. Soldiers can be seen approaching the practitioners in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

Falun Gong practitioners hold banners in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, circa 2000. Source: Falun Data Infocenter.

In July 1999, the Communist Party of China launched a nationwide campaign to eliminate Falun Gong, a spiritual practice believed to have as many as 70 million adherents. Since that time, hundreds of thousands—if not millions—of Falun Gong practitioners have been detained without due process in prisons, reeducation-through-labour camps, detention centers, and “black jails.” Torture and other high-pressure methods are used to force adherents to renounce their beliefs, sometimes resulting in deaths, while official sources and state-run media agencies depict the group as evil and openly call for its “complete eradication.”

In response to the suppression campaign, Falun Gong adherents outside China have sought to invoke the concept of universal jurisdiction to bring charges against senior Chinese leaders alleging torture, genocide, and crimes against humanity. This essay assesses the claims of genocide committed against the Falun Gong by making reference to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, and jurisprudence of international criminal tribunals for Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. It argues that while some aspects of the Falun Gong case are unique—such as the potential ambiguity of the group’s religious identity—the suppression of Falun Gong would likely satisfy the convention definition of genocide. Continue reading →

Chinese Lawfare in the South China Sea

Posted on July 12, 2022 by Assistant Editor

A Threat to Global Interdependence and Regional Stability

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 7, July 2022

Map of the South China Sea, with 9-dotted line highlighted in green. Source: CIA.

Priscilla Tacujan, Ph.D.
U.S. Department of Defense

China’s expansionism in the South China Sea (SCS) is underway, despite opposition from small littoral states and regional powers in the area. China is seeking to change the legal order governing maritime conduct by engaging in “lawfare”[1] and infrastructure-building on disputed waters as part of its maritime strategy. Lawfare enables Beijing to undermine established elements of international law and delegitimize neighboring states’ maritime claims. Claimant countries and the U.S. have argued for the importance of a rules-based approach that offers clear and uniform rules for maritime conduct. However, in the absence of enforcement mechanisms, China will likely continue to undermine international law, prevent littoral states from advancing their maritime claims, and threaten regional stability and global interdependence. Assessing and improving countermeasures currently in place, including enforcement mechanisms, existing maritime coalitions with regional allies and the U.S., and freedom of navigation (FON) operations may deter Chinese aggression and prevent the escalation of maritime conflicts in the SCS.

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