What if The Houthis were in Malacca?

STRAIT OF MALACCA (Oct. 23, 2014) The Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigate USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG 60) conducts a passing exercise with the Indonesian Navy Sigma-class corvette KRI Sultan Hasanuddin (366). Rodney M. Davis, stationed in Everett, Wash., is on patrol in the 7th Fleet area of responsibility supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Derek A. Harkins/Released)

Strait of Malacca (Oct. 23, 2014). The Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigate USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG 60) conducts a passing exercise with the Indonesian Navy Sigma-class corvette KRI Sultan Hasanuddin (366). Rodney M. Davis, stationed in Everett, Wash., is on patrol in the 7th Fleet area of responsibility supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Derek A. Harkins/Released)

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 2, January 2025

By Vaibhav Panwar


“For in tremendous extremities human souls are like drowning men; well enough they know they are in peril; well enough they know the causes of that peril; nevertheless, the sea is the sea, and these drowning men do drown.”    — Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Between October 7th and most of 2024, the Houthi militia of Yemen earned its entry into the pantheon of global armed resistances— and the wider world’s list of threats to everyday life— with their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. While nowhere close to some of the infamous acts of terrorism committed globally in measures of human fatalities, the Houthis, however, have managed to hit the world where it hurts: commercial shipping chokepoints. Despite multiple countries’ naval efforts, the Red Sea and Suez Canal have observed a sizable drop in maritime traffic as ships opt to take the safer, but much longer routes to European ports. This often adds tens of thousands of nautical miles to their journeys, and with it inefficiencies to their cost, lead time, and the environment.

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Putin’s Nightmares and the Threat of a Nuclear “Accident”

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 12, December 2024 

By Christopher Shove, Ph.D.

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan " No More Time"

A mural of Putin, Hitler, and Stalin with a slogan “No More Time”. Anthony D Barraclough via Flickr.

As Russian losses mount, Putin’s threat of a nuclear incident becomes all the more likely. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report dated 10 December 2024, Russian casualties from February 24, 2022 to December 10, 2024 include the following: 755,940 personnel, 9,524 tanks, and 19,596 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). While Ukraine’s estimate may appear high, there is consensus from many intelligence sources that Russian losses are substantial. A recent example is the increase in losses in the Russia Kursk oblast where Ukraine counter-attacked and has occupied since August 6, 2024. Here, Ukrainian soldiers report 10 or more daily waves of Russian attacks on the Kursk battlefield with almost all stopped, resulting in massive Russian losses. As a result, Russia has transferred soldiers from other areas to the Kursk battlefield – with only losses and no gains against Ukraine’s clever tactics. Continue reading

Leadership Reaffirmed: A Blueprint for America’s Global Strategy toward China

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 11, November 2024 

By Yan Bennett

Donald Trump poses for his official White House portrait

Donald J. Trump. Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.

Dear President-elect Trump,

Congratulations on your recent victory. The American people have reaffirmed your leadership, granting you a renewed mandate to continue advancing the policies that prioritize the security, prosperity, and strength of our nation. This victory represents an endorsement of your commitment to putting America first and underscores the opportunity to build on the significant strides made during your first administration.

As stated in your first National Security Strategy (NSS), your administration laid out “a strategic vision for protecting the American people and preserving our way of life, promoting our prosperity, preserving peace through strength, and advancing American influence in the world” (NSS, 2017 ii). The American people have placed their confidence in your ability to navigate these immense challenges with steady strength and assertiveness.   Continue reading

It’s Past Time to Secure the Internet

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 11, November 2024 

The image depicts a world globe focusing on America.

Nick Aldwin via Flickr

By Tim Sell

If we’ve learned anything in the last three years, it’s that open borders don’t work. They put American citizens at risk. Why haven’t we learned, over the last thirty years, that an open Internet causes the same problems? I read about problems everyday from Russian hackers and Iranian agents creating election havoc and stealing identities and money. About a year ago, I experienced bank fraud and identity theft. When I reported this to my local police department, I was told nothing could be done,
as the attack came from “overseas” on the Internet.

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Modelling Country Risk of Zambia

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2024

Simon Muwando1
University of Lusaka

Victor Gumbo2
University of Botswana

Gelson Tembo3
University of Zambia

 

Abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the flow of transnational investments following increased internationalization and globalization of firms in the previous decade. Country risk exposure is a cause for concern for all the institutions that are engaged in multinational trade and finance. The main objective of this study was to model the Zambia’s country risk. A mixed method with concurrent research design was employed. An autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on annual data from the 1994 to 2018 period. Country beta was used as a proxy for indicating country risk. The findings of the study revealed that the main determinants of country risk of Zambia in the short run are beta, current account balance, political risk, unemployment rate, and short-term interest rates. In the long run, country risk of Zambia is mainly influenced by current account balance, betas, political risk and unemployment rate. Effective policies need to be implemented by authorities to manage persistent current account deficits and political risk.

Key Terms: country risk; country risk analysis; internationalization; globalization; autoregressive distributed lag; Zambia; globalization

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